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 Scenario PlanningImagining what your church will be like in the future.
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The Air Force first introduced the world to the scenario concept. It used scenarios in World War II to anticipate what America's opponents might do and to prepare alternative strategies. Herman Kahn later brought the concept over into the business world and developed it further. Scenarios are not plans but hypothetical sketches or stories of what an organization's future could look like. It's a disciplined method for imagining a church's different possible futures, allowing individuals and churches to be proactive more than passive in dealing with the future. They help leaders prepare for whatever may happen. Scenario planning is accomplished best in a team context. The various team members represent different perspectives that may add important insights and viewpoints to the overall process. With a team it is also easier to do the work of research and information gathering. Scenario planning takes time to gather and interact over the material that makes up each scenario. Thus you must approach and use this tool with patience. If you hurry the process, the tool will not help you make good decisions about the ministry's future. Scenario thinking is more an art than a science. That means that it is more caught than taught, and some people will be better at it than others. Regardless, anyone can learn to do it with some proficiency. Though it is somewhat intuitive in its development, scenario building does have a recognizable process. In The Art of the Long View, Peter Schwartz outlines the following scenario-developing process. I would add that from a Christian perspective, a church should bathe the entire process in prayer and the regular study of God's Word. Divine guidance is essential to any decisions that Christians make. Step 1: Articulate Your Key DecisionsThe first step in the scenario-developing process is to articulate key decisions that your ministry will have to make. Decisions are critical to your life and the future of your ministry. They shape life in the future. To a great degree, your life and that of your ministry is the sum of your decisions. Though various events that are beyond your control will affect your ministry, your decisions and reactions to those events are under your control and will affect your future as well. Leading a church in the 21st century involves making numerous decisions about the ministry and its future. For example, a number of churches at the beginning of the 21st century are in decline. They face major decisions regarding their future: Should we continue to minister as now? Should we consider relocating to another community for ministry? Should we disband, sell our property and facilities, and give the proceeds to another ministry such as a church plant? Other churches are experiencing numerical growth. They also face major decisions regarding their future: Should we start a new S-curve now or next year? Should we expand our present facilities or move to a new location and build a larger facility at that site? Should we add new missionaries or start an aggressive program of church planting? Scenarios lead to a better awareness of a church's future and to better decisions affecting that future. |             |
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